What do the 2025 local election results mean for Labour's strategy and the future of net zero policies?
By Matthew Dawson, Account Manager, and Katie Davies, Account Manager
10 months into Government, Labour have suffered a shocking reversal of fortunes in Runcorn in Cheshire, as well as in council and mayoral results across the country. The party won only 6% of council seats up for election compared to 41% for Reform UK, and there have only been 17 previous parliamentary by-elections in which a majority as big as Labour's in Runcorn – around 35% – has previously been overturned. What does all this mean for British politics and how will the results impact the design and ambition of environmental policies?
How will the local election results impact Labour’s strategy?
Firstly, the results are inevitably leading to questions over Labour’s political strategy in Government.
Ros Jones, who won the mayoralty for Labour in Doncaster, urged the prime minister to "listen to the people" following the election results, demanding a rethink over Personal Independence Payment (PIP) cuts, National Insurance Contribution (NIC) rises for small businesses, and changes to the winter fuel allowance eligibility.
Pollster Luke Tryl’s analysis is that the vote represents a desire for change: “from focus groups this is driven by deep disillusionment with the status quo, anger at 14 years of the Tories, and frustration with the start of the Labour Government leaving people who may still be unsure on Reform feeling they may as well roll the dice to get the change they keep asking for.”
Labour Party Chair Ellie Reeves has said that the party knows there's more to do, but they're getting on with it and "change takes time" adding “people don't feel change overnight, but we're getting on with delivery”.
Hugely influential Downing Street Chief of Staff Morgan McSweeney has built his reputation on fighting far-right, anti-immigrant parties, arguing that delivering on people’s day-to-day concerns such as potholes is the way to rebuild trust for the centre-left. Despite these results, it seems likely that this focus on ‘delivery’ coupled with a continued tough line on immigration and emphasis on patriotism, will continue to guide thinking at the top of Government.
What are the next big challenges for the Labour Government?
The next big political tests for the Government will be a parliamentary vote on their welfare changes in June, at which significant numbers of Labour MPs are expected to rebel, with backbenchers already calling for an end to benefit cuts. And crucially, the Spending Review next month, which will set out its plans for spending and key public sector reforms. It is anticipated that there will be large cuts across Government in order to keep within the Chancellor’s fiscal rules.
However, with the party’s entire political strategy now relying on delivering meaningful improvements to voters’ lives, is a fundamental tension arising between the Chancellor’s economic strategy and No10’s political strategy? The New Statesman’s George Eaton has outlined an emerging ‘pincer movement’ against the Chancellor’s agenda, with the ‘Blue Labour’ grouping on the right of the party and the ‘soft left’ both agreeing that greater spending is necessary.
Reform's approach to the environment and net zero
The environment and net zero featured prominently in the election campaign and Reform leader Nigel Farage MP has said that Reform councils will cut unnecessary spending on climate change. Newly-elected Reform Mayor Andrea Jenkyns, who sits on the board of anti-climate campaign group Net Zero Watch, has claimed that carbon dioxide “is not pollution”, and dubbed clean energy policies “bureaucratic nonsense” that should be scrapped.
As the dust settles, we recommend Persuasion UK’s analysis of potential Reform voters published before the elections. In particular, they analysed 'Reform curious’ Labour voters, the kind who switched allegiances in Runcorn, and found they are “simply not anti-net zero in the way core Reformers are”, adding that “they don't blame it for rising bills or low growth. They care less about net zero than the Labour base, but are supportive.”
Persuasion UK’s Steve Akehurst’s advice for Labour party strategists was that his polling “shows strong signalling on net zero is all upside [because] it keeps Green curious Labour onside without losing Reform curious (who don’t mind either way). Similarly, being seen as anti is all downside.” Their polling chart is below:
What do the local election results mean for renewable energy deployment?
Across the country, renewable energy projects in Reform-run councils will likely face increased opposition from local councillors, leading to higher rejection rates and therefore lengthy appeals processes against planning decisions. Farage has already encouraged Staffordshire councillors to reject recent wind farm and solar farm applications. All of which will add to the resources required by a developer and act as an investment deterrent.
Further, bolstered by this success, Reform MPs may apply increased pressure on councils to block renewable energy projects. This top-down pressure will be particularly strong in Lincolnshire, which now has a Reform mayor, a Reform-run council, and a Reform MP - deputy leader Richard Tice MP - who has promised to write to potential renewables developers telling them to “take [their] money and [their] daft ideas elsewhere”.
We could see a rise in applications for larger renewable energy projects, as developers opt for securing permission through the Nationally Significant Infrastructure Projects (NSIP) process, which places the decision in the hands of the Planning Inspectorate and ultimately the Energy Secretary.
Making the case for environmental protections to Reform UK
Could there still be surprising moments of opportunity to make a Reform case for nature protection and climate action?
This week, in a seeming attempt to outflank Labour on the environment, a senior Reform MP has signalled support for the Planning and Infrastructure Bill to include provisions to force the installation of ‘swift bricks’ in new homes. Following a report suggesting Labour would whip against an amendment on this due to fears of attacks from Reform, Reform MP Richard Tice signed an Early Day Motion supporting the nature-friendly nesting bricks, telling Politico “I just think they should get on with it. Get it done. It’s an easy win,” adding that they are “a very good thing, and I say that as a former house builder.”
On the climate, Reform will find that voters will also not take kindly to missing out on investment in green jobs, with polling this week commissioned by ECIU finding that across the public as a whole, renewable energy and clean technology is seen as the best economic growth opportunity (32%), beating manufacturing (31%) and healthcare (25%), financial services (23%) and oil and gas is (17%). And a strong majority (68% ) of voters even in Farage’s constituency of Clacton, Essex, are concerned about the effects of rising temperatures, according to a poll by More in Common.
For renewable energy developers engaging with Reform-run councils, focus must shift away from the ideological case for clean energy. Applications for new projects should be underpinned by the practical benefits they deliver, whether this is in the form of lower bills or tangible community benefits, for example a fund that developers pay into to finance local infrastructure. Bringing local communities onside by engaging with them early on the process will be all the more important in swaying Reform councillors.
Next electoral tests for the Government
The results only increase the importance of next year’s elections for the devolved Governments in Scotland and Wales, as well as more widespread council elections. Losing control of a council is one thing, losing control of a country (as is possible in Wales) is another and would hugely increase pressure on the Government to change tack. Already this week, Welsh Labour First Minister Eluned Morgan has criticised the party’s welfare reforms saying she would pursue a leftwing “red Welsh way” and put a clear dividing line between Welsh Labour and the national party.
In the past, the Welsh Labour desire to lead on the environment has led to numerous ambitious policies including a ban on new waste incinerators, the freezing of new road building projects, and most recently the development of a Deposit Return Scheme covering more materials than anywhere else in the UK.
Still, predicting the outcome of the next General Election is harder than ever. With 4 years to go until the likely date of the next UK General Election (a period in which the US will also elect a new President), and with global geopolitics, economics and the weather changing rapidly, it is almost impossible to predict how the national electoral landscape will look at the latest possible election date of 15 August 2029.