Are you ready for the new PM?
By Isabella Gornall, Founder and Chair
Whatever happens in the by-election next week, we will have a new Prime Minister. This week has already been rife with speculation about what happens if Andy Burnham wins on the 18th, but the drama continues.
The Prime Minister apparently said at Cabinet yesterday that anyone who supports Burnham for leader will have to resign. Little did he know that the resignations would start sooner than that.
As Tim Shipman has just said on X, John Healey’s resignation is the most consequential Cabinet departure in the last 25 years. Which Member of Parliament would even want to take the new Defence Secretary job in these circumstances?
At a time of national security crisis, losing his Defence Secretary seems like the final straw for Starmer.
So what’s next and how can you prepare for it?
Before the by-election:
It is possible that Starmer is unable to lead a credible Cabinet and that more resignations follow John Healey’s. Rachel Reeves is hanging on by a thread. Things could move very fast.
If Starmer lasts the week and Burnham wins:
Given some opposition to him in the Parliamentary Labour Party, Burnham will most likely have to start a leadership contest rather than be crowned king.
However, Starmer may admit defeat or Burnham could do a deal. We will then have a major new reshuffle and Burnham advisors in No10.
If Starmer stays and Burnham doesn’t win:
Labour MPs will most likely still start their formal leadership challenge without Burnham. They will have to secure their 81 nominations from the Parliamentary Labour Party and the contest begins.
Starmer, as he’s suggested, will take part in this leadership challenge and we will find out the result around Labour Party Conference in the Autumn.
If Starmer wins, which we doubt, either way, he will be leading a very different Cabinet with a shifted agenda. The current agenda cannot hold with the current fiscal situation.
What should you do to prepare?
It may seem simple but here is the Seahorse checklist:
Are your briefings up to date? Have you removed references to the ‘Water Reform Bill’ and changed them to the ‘Clean Water Bill’? We love a rebrand during the King’s speech!
Are you aware of the fiscal implications of your asks? Are you pre-empting what the Treasury will say? This has never been more important.
Have you cemented your relationships with civil servants? They too are highly impacted by this turbulence.
Have you mapped the different policy influencers and think tanks aligned with those who may move into No.10? They are crucial to steering the direction of a new administration.
Are your relationships with back bench MPs wide ranging? The teams are about to change and that MP you’ve been working so closely with might be about to get a promotion. Have you done the leg work to ensure you’re not without a Parliamentary champion?
These are just a few of the considerations to be made. It’s a turbulent time, but this is where the Seahorse Herd is at it’s best. If you need help navigating Westminster then please email Isabella at isabella@seahorseenvironmental.co.uk